Federal Regulators Investigate Adam Kinzinger Over Bets On His Own Biden Pardon

Former Illinois Republican Rep. Adam Kinzinger is under investigation by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission over prediction-market trades he made involving the possibility that President Joe Biden would pardon him before leaving office. Kinzinger, who served on the House committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack and became a prominent Republican critic of President Donald Trump, acknowledged wagering on two pardon-related markets on Kalshi in late 2024 and early 2025, including one specifically concerning whether he would receive a pardon. Biden ultimately granted Kinzinger and other committee members preemptive pardons on Jan. 20, 2025. Kinzinger says he wagered $669 and netted $823, denies possessing inside information, and says he believed the transactions complied with Kalshi’s rules. Kalshi reportedly identified the transactions during a broader review of suspicious activity and referred them to the CFTC. No wrongdoing has been established, but the investigation comes amid mounting concern about insider trading on rapidly expanding political prediction markets—and carries an added element of controversy because Kinzinger himself subsequently warned that such markets could become a “corruption time bomb.”

Key Takeaways

Kinzinger acknowledges betting on whether he would personally receive a Biden pardon and on whether Biden would issue preemptive pardons, wagering $669 and ultimately netting $823 from the trades.
Kinzinger denies possessing nonpublic information or discussing a possible pardon with Biden administration officials, while the CFTC investigation remains an inquiry and no finding of wrongdoing or insider trading has been announced.
The controversy underscores a broader regulatory problem surrounding political prediction markets: participants with connections to government or political events may possess information unavailable to ordinary traders, creating difficult questions about market integrity and conflicts of interest.

In-Depth

Former Rep. Adam Kinzinger’s decision to wager money on whether President Joe Biden would pardon him presents precisely the kind of ethical dilemma critics have warned could accompany the explosive growth of political prediction markets.

Kinzinger was no longer a congressman when he placed the trades. He says he possessed no inside information, never discussed a potential pardon with anyone who would know Biden’s intentions, and reviewed Kalshi’s rules before participating. Those facts matter. An investigation is not evidence of guilt, and regulators have announced no finding that Kinzinger engaged in insider trading.

But the optics are difficult to dismiss. Kinzinger was not merely predicting an election or congressional vote. He was wagering on a presidential decision directly affecting himself after serving on the Jan. 6 committee. Biden ultimately pardoned him, and Kinzinger profited $823.

The controversy becomes more striking because Kinzinger later publicly criticized political prediction markets, warning that they could become a “corruption time bomb” by allowing politicians to profit from information unavailable to ordinary citizens.

That does not prove hypocrisy under the law, much less establish illegal conduct. It does, however, demonstrate the regulatory problem. Markets function properly only when participants trust that insiders do not enjoy privileged information.

Prediction markets may provide valuable information about public expectations, but wagering involving government officials, political candidates or people directly affected by governmental decisions demands clear rules. Congress and regulators should establish those boundaries before a far larger scandal forces them to act.

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Federal Regulators Investigate Adam Kinzinger Over Bets On His Own Biden Pardon

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